AI News, Self-driving Cars an $87 Billion Opportunity in 2030, Though None Reach Full Autonomy

Self-driving Cars an $87 Billion Opportunity in 2030, Though None Reach Full Autonomy

“Today the autonomous vehicle value chain is already starting to take root, and it involves many players new to the industry,” said Cosmin Laslau, Lux Research Analyst and the lead author of the report titled, “Set Autopilot for Profits: Capitalizing on the $87 Billion Self-driving Car Opportunity.” “Sensor hardware specialists like Velodyne Lidar are developing products with unprecedented resolution, software and big-data powerhouses like IBM and Google are striking up partnerships, and even mapping and connectivity experts like Nokia and Cisco are throwing their hats into the ring,” he added.

China to lead $87 billion market for self-drive cars

'In spite of the tremendous hype around driverless vehicles, a vehicle that can truly drive itself in all conditions will not be on the road by 2030 in the likely scenario,' the study, released on Tuesday, said.

More advanced cars using high-resolution special maps, demonstrated by Google and Mercedes-Benz, will gain only 8 percent of the market by 2030, while no fully autonomous cars will hit the market by this point in time, it added.

In the report, Lux Research explained that North America will initially lead the market opportunity in SDCs but China's market share will grow rapidly to claim a 35 percent share of the 120 million cars sold in 2030.

'A more open attitude from Chinese premium car buyers towards high-tech features, the high relevance of status symbols and probably less legal restriction is likely to further speed up demand.'

Self-Driving Cars Will Lead to a $87 Billion Opportunity in 2030

Automakers and technology developers are closer than ever to bringing self-driving cars to market, with basic “Level 2” autonomous behavior already coming to market, in the form of relatively modest self-driving features like adaptive cruise control, lane departure warning, and collision avoidance braking.

Today, demonstrations of autonomous cars by the likes of Google and Mercedes-Benz are technically impressive, but still depend on high-resolution special maps, are limited to certain routes and weather conditions, and need a trained professional driver behind the wheel.

More importantly for a wider set of market participants, self-driving technology will create a new opportunity for the automotive value chain, and bringing in outsiders to join incumbents looking to capitalize on a new market.

This software will be largely invisible to the driver, operating behind the scenes as machine vision that brings sensor inputs together, and that uses artificial intelligence to determine a safe navigation path through the world.

However, because of the increasing complex processing requirements of Level 3 autonomy, in 2030 computers will be biggest hardware opportunity on-board autonomous cars, amounting to a $13 billion opportunity.

Inside the vehicle, decreased driver involvement will require high-end automakers to find new ways to differentiate amongst each other, based less on outright performance and sportiness, and more on luxury, technology, and the human-machine interface.

Self-driving Cars Will Be $87 Billion Market by 2030

The report notes that as today's premium driver-assist and safety options become standard features, these 'smart car' technologies will become a US $87 billion in 2030, offering new and potentially lucrative revenue streams for automakers as well as the suppliers of advanced hardware and software for vehicles.

So despite the hype over self-driving cars, most of the change in the automobile market will come in the form of near-universal availability of driver-assist features such asadaptive cruise control,lane departure warning, andautonomous emergency breaking—capabilitiesthat we already see in high end vehicles.

In fact, says the Lux report, these safety packages, which are in about 3 percent of the world’s cars today, will be featured in 92 percent of the vehicles that land in dealer showrooms in 2030.The more enhanced functions represented by Google’s fleet—the ability to operate autonomously under certain conditions,in places that have been extensively mapped—will be available in only 8 percent of 2030 model year vehicles.

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