AI News, Experts Predict When Artificial Intelligence Will Exceed Human Performance

Experts Predict When Artificial Intelligence Will Exceed Human Performance

Artificial intelligence is changing the world and doing it at breakneck speed.

They surveyed the world’s leading researchers in artificial intelligence by asking them when they think intelligent machines will better humans in a wide range of tasks.

Grace and co asked them all—1,634 of them—to fill in a survey about when artificial intelligence would be better and cheaper than humans at a variety of tasks.

Grave and co then calculated their median responses The experts predict that AI will outperform humans in the next 10years in tasks such as translating languages (by 2024), writing high school essays (by 2026), and driving trucks (by 2027).

AI won’t be better than humans at working in retail until 2031, able to write a bestselling book until 2049, or capable of workingas a surgeon until 2053.

(This was in 2015, remember.) In fact, Google’s DeepMind subsidiary has already developed an artificial intelligence capable of beating the best humans.

So any predicted change that is further away than that means the change will happen beyond the working lifetime of everyone who is working today.

To find out if different groups made different predictions, Grace and co looked at how the predictions changed with the age of the researchers, the number of their citations (i.e., their expertise), and their region of origin.

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