AI News, Elon Musk says AI will make jobs irrelevant artificial intelligence
- On 21. september 2019
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Warning! AI Is Heading for a Cliff | California Magazine
Asked if the race to achieve superhuman artificial intelligence (AI) was inevitable, Stuart Russell, UC Berkeley professor of computer science and leading expert on AI, saysyes.
“The idea of intelligent machines is kind of irresistible,” he says, and the desire to make intelligent machines dates back thousands of years.
Aristotle himself imagined a future in which “the plectrum could pluck itself” and “the loom could weave the cloth.” But the stakes of this future are incredibly high.
As Russell told his audience during a talk he gave in London in 2013, “Success would be the biggest event in human history … and perhaps the last event in humanhistory.” The problem isn’t AI itself, but the way it’s designed.
Services like Google Maps and the recommendation engines that drive online shopping sites like Amazon may seem innocuous, but advanced versions of those same algorithms are enabling AI that is more nefarious.
(Think doctored news videos and targeted politicalpropaganda.) AI devotees assure us that we will never be able to create machines with superhuman intelligence.
In his forthcoming book, Human Compatible: Artificial Intelligence and the Problem of Control, he compares AI optimists to the bus driver who, as he accelerates toward a cliff, assures the passengers they needn’t worry—he’ll run out of gas before they reach theprecipice.
It’s just a defensive maneuver to avoid having to think about the direction that they’reheading.” The problem isn’t AI itself, but the way it’s designed.
Anyone who’s ever tried to keep an octopus will tell you that they’re sufficiently smart that they’re really hard to keep in one place.
They find ways of escaping, they can open doors, they can squeeze under doors, they can find their way around—because they’re smart.
So if you make machines that are potentially more intelligent than us, then, a priori, it’s far from obvious how to control those machines and how to avoid consequences that are negative for human beings.
And in order to do that, they learned by a very simple process how to manipulate human beings and change the kind of person you are so that you become more predictable in your clicking behavior.
The total dystopian end would be that society would collapse, that people would become completely distrustful of others, completely unwilling to help or comply with normal rules of behavior.
If you had a system whose objective is to bring the level of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere back to the pre-industrial level—a climate-change-reversing objective—you’d be happy with that,right?
One thing you might do is to say, “Maximize click-through, subject to the constraint that you are not modifying the opinions of the user.” And there are other algorithms, non-reinforcement-learning algorithms that adapt to the user’s preferences, but don’t modify the user’s preferences.
If their fundamental objective is to be of benefit to humans, but they know that they don’t know what that means, then they’re going to ask questions.
But if [algorithms] could find a way, using the screen, to effectively re-engineer our minds to click whenever we were told to click, then that’s what they would do.
A more intelligent algorithm that really understood human neuropsychology could probably figure out a way to use the screen to literally control our behavior in a very direct and enforceable manner that we wouldn’t be able toresist.
That is what we call “provably beneficial,” meaning that we can prove mathematically that systems designed in the right way will be beneficial to humanbeings.
If this was 1800, and I said, “I need to be in Sydney,” then that would cost the equivalent of several billion dollars, it would take thousands of people, it would take four or five years, and I have about a 75 percent chance of dying.
Like if I said, “I want to build a new house.” Right now, I can’t just go on my phone and say, tap, tap, tap, tap, tap, and have a new house.
It’s expensive, takes a long time, you need to get architects, you need to get permits, then you will argue with the construction foreman, and it always costs three times as much.
Some people say, “We can upload our brains into silicon devices.” But there’s no guarantee that even if we knew what that meant—and we have absolutely no idea what it means, despite what all the movies seem to show—that you would actually have a continued existence.
In your new book, you talk about employment and how, as intelligent robots take over our manual jobs, we’re going to have to take on more high-level work, like art and psychotherapy.
Because if you just take the status quo and add AI to it, you get something like WALL-E, where people stop bothering about knowing anything or being able to do anything because machines know it, machines can do it.
- On 2. marts 2021
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