# AI News, A Guide For Time Series Prediction Using Recurrent Neural Networks (LSTMs)

- On Wednesday, June 27, 2018
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## A Guide For Time Series Prediction Using Recurrent Neural Networks (LSTMs)

As an Indian guy living in the US, I have a constant flow of money from home to me and vice versa.

If one can predict how much a dollar will cost tomorrow, then this can guide one’s decision making and can be very important in minimizing risks and maximizing returns.

Looking at the strengths of a neural network, especially a recurrent neural network, I came up with the idea of predicting the exchange rate between the USD and the INR.

There are a lot of methods of forecasting exchange rates such as: In this article, we’ll tell you how to predict the future exchange rate behavior using time series analysis and by making use of machine learning with time series.

The simplest recurrent neural network can be viewed as a fully connected neural network if we unroll the time axes.

This formula is like the exponential weighted moving average (EWMA) by making its pass values of the output with the current values of the input.

As we have talked about, a simple recurrent network suffers from a fundamental problem of not being able to capture long-term dependencies in a sequence.

In late ’90s, LSTM was proposed by Sepp Hochreiter and Jurgen Schmidhuber, which is relatively insensitive to gap length over alternatives RNNs, hidden markov models, and other sequence learning methods in numerous applications.

Forget Gate It is a sigmoid layer that takes the output at t-1 and the current input at time t and concatenates them into a single tensor and applies a linear transformation followed by a sigmoid.

This layer applies a hyperbolic tangent to the mix of input and previous output, returning a candidate vector to be added to the internal state.

The internal state is updated with this rule: .The previous state is multiplied by the forget gate and then added to the fraction of the new candidate allowed by the output gate.

These three gates described above have independent weights and biases, hence the network will learn how much of the past output to keep, how much of the current input to keep, and how much of the internal state to send out to the output.

Over a period of time, a recurrent neural network tries to learn what to keep and how much to keep from the past, and how much information to keep from the present state, which makes it so powerful as compared to a simple feed forward neural network.

Many of the newer developed economies suffered far less impact, particularly China and India, whose economies grew substantially during this period.

fully Connected Model is a simple neural network model which is built as a simple regression model that will take one input and will spit out one output.

As a loss function, we use mean squared error and stochastic gradient descent as an optimizer, which after enough numbers of epochs will try to look for a good local optimum.

After training this model for 200 epochs or early_callbacks (whichever came first), the model tries to learn the pattern and the behavior of the data.

Since we split the data into training and testing sets we can now predict the value of testing data and compare them with the ground truth.

We used 6 LSTM nodes in the layer to which we gave input of shape (1,1), which is one input given to the network with one value.

This model has learned to reproduce the yearly shape of the data and doesn’t have the lag it used to have with a simple feed forward neural network.

Sliding time window methods are very useful in terms of fetching important patterns in the dataset that are highly dependent on the past bulk of observations.

LSTM models are powerful enough to learn the most important past behaviors and understand whether or not those past behaviors are important features in making future predictions.

- On Wednesday, June 27, 2018
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A neural network is a powerful computational data model that is able to capture and represent complex input/output relationships.

development of neural network technology stemmed from the desire to develop an artificial system that could perform 'intelligent' tasks similar to those

Neural networks resemble the human brain in the following two ways: The true power and advantage of neural networks lies in their ability to represent both linear and non-linear relationships and in their ability to learn

The goal of this type of network is to create a model that correctly maps the input to the output using historical data so

As the processed data leaves the first hidden layer, again it gets multiplied by interconnection weights, then summed

Finally the data is multiplied by interconnection weights then processed one last time within the output layer

With each presentation the output of the neural network is compared to the desired output and an error is computed.

error is then fed back (backpropagated) to the neural network and used to adjust the weights such that the error decreases with each iteration and the

each presentation, the error between the network output and the desired output is computed and fed back to the neural network.

software must analyze each group of pixels (0's and 1's) that form a letter and produce a value that corresponds to that letter.

data-intensive applications, such as: NeuroDimension has been in the business of bringing neural networks and predictive data analytics to individuals, businesses, and universities from around the

It accesses your data, cleans it, organizes it, manipulates it, and intelligently searches through the most popular neural networks.

It also features next generation distributed and parallel computing using as many computers and processors as you want at discovering relationships.

- On Wednesday, June 27, 2018
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## Neural network Model to infer inputs given an output

I'm assuming that you mean your inputs are 4-dimensional vectors and your outputs are 1 dimensional vectors.

If you think that the output vectors give you enough information to completely determine the inputs (at least approximately), then just treat your 1D 'outputs' as inputs and your 4D 'inputs' as outputs.

Another case is that very different inputs are mapped to similar outputs in your dataset, and you really just want to compute a prototype input for a given output.

- On Wednesday, June 27, 2018
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## Mining Model Content for Neural Network Models (Analysis Services - Data Mining)

For an explanation of how to interpret statistics and structure shared by all model types, and general definitions of terms related to mining model content, see Mining Model Content (Analysis Services - Data Mining).

Each neural network model has a single parent node that represents the model and its metadata, and a marginal statistics node (NODE_TYPE = 24) that provides descriptive statistics about the input attributes.

The marginal statistics node is useful because it summarizes information about inputs, so that you do not need to query data from the individual nodes.

You can click any node to expand it and see the child nodes, or view the weights and other statistics that is contained in the node.

This section provides detail and examples only for those columns in the mining model content that have particular relevance for neural networks.

For information about general-purpose columns in the schema rowset, such as MODEL_CATALOG and MODEL_NAME, that are not described here, or for explanations of mining model terminology, see Mining Model Content (Analysis Services - Data Mining).

The purpose of training a neural network model is to determine the weights that are associated with each transition from an input to a midpoint, and from a midpoint to an endpoint.

Therefore, the input layer of the model principally exists to store the actual values that were used to build the model.

The output layer stores the predictable values, and also provides pointers back to the midpoints in the hidden layer.

The naming of the nodes in a neural network model provides additional information about the type of node, to make it easier to relate the hidden layer to the input layer, and the output layer to the hidden layer.

You can determine which input attributes are related to a specific hidden layer node by viewing the NODE_DISTRIBUTION table in the hidden node (NODE_TYPE = 22).

Similarly, you can determine which hidden layers are related to an output attribute by viewing the NODE_DISTRIBUTION table in the output node (NODE_TYPE = 23).

However, for input nodes, hidden layer nodes, and output nodes, the NODE_DISTRIBUTION table stores important and interesting information about the model.

To help you interpret this information, the NODE_DISTRIBUTION table contains a VALUETYPE column for each row that tells you whether the value in the ATTRIBUTE_VALUE column is Discrete (4), Discretized (5), or Continuous (3).

Discretized numeric attribute: The input node stores the name of the attribute, and the value, which can be a range or a specific value.

Continuous attribute: The final two rows of the NODE_DISTRIBUTION table contain the mean of the attribute, the coefficient for the node as a whole, and the variance of the coefficient.

- On Wednesday, June 19, 2019

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