AI News, 7 Ways Time-Series Forecasting Differs from Machine Learning
- On Thursday, June 7, 2018
- By Read More
7 Ways Time-Series Forecasting Differs from Machine Learning
However, it is assumed that he or she has experience developing machine learning models (at any level) and handling basic statistical concepts.
It was a challenging, yet enriching, experience that gave me a better understanding of how machine learning can be applied to business problems.
In most cases, a prediction is a specific value, e.g., the kind of object in a picture, the value of a house, whether a mail is spam or not, etc.
You can think of this type of variable in two ways: If you have experience working in machine learning, you must make some adjustments when working with time series.
As a machine learning practitioner, you may already be used to creating features, either manually (feature engineering) or automatically (feature learning).
Is it also possible to combine time series with feature engineering using time series components and time-based features.The first refers to the properties (components) of a time series, and the latter refers to time-related features, which have definite patterns and can be calculated in a deterministic way.
Time series components are highly important to analyzing the variable of interest in order to understand its behavior, what patterns it has, and to be able to choose and fit an appropriate time-series model.
Both time series components and features are key to interpreting the behavior of the time series, analyzing its properties, identifying possible causes, and more.
You may be used to feeding thousands, millions, or billions of data points into a machine learning model, but this is not always the case with time series.
But in reality, there are some benefits to having small- to medium-sized time series: This does not mean that you will not be working with huge time series, but you must be prepared and able to handle smaller time series as well.
Some of these datasets come from events recorded with a timestamp, systems logs, financial data, data obtained from sensors (IoT), etc.
Since TSDB works natively with time series, it is a great opportunity to apply time series technique to large-scale datasets.
One of the most important properties an algorithm needs in order to be considered a time-series algorithm is the ability to extrapolate patterns outside of the domain of training data.
While this is a default property of time series models, most machine learning models do not have this ability because they are not all based on statistical distributions.
While evaluation metrics help determine how close the fitted values are to the actual ones, they do not evaluate whether the model properly fits the time series.
As you are trying to capture the patterns of a time series, you would expect the errors to behave as white noise, as they represent what cannot be captured by the model.
If the model you built is unbiased, the mean of the residuals will be zero or close to zero, and therefore the sum of the residuals will be close to zero:
Alternatively, you could choose to use thestandard deviation of the residuals as the sample standard deviation, allowing the confidence intervals tobe calculated using an appropriate distribution, like the normal or exponential.
For some models, e.g., neural networks, which are not based on probability distributions, you can run simulations of the forecasts and calculate confidence intervals from the distribution of the simulations.
When this occurs, it is preferable to first evaluate the impact, and then, if required, update the forecasts using recent data after the event has passed.
- On Wednesday, January 23, 2019
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